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TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Issued at 3:56 pm EST Wednesday 2 February 2011. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 16.
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The outermost boundary of the winds shown in the Coral Sea represent strong gale force (41kt) winds. Elsewhere gale force (34kt) winds are shown.
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Remarks:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.
DURING THE EVENING, THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN CAIRNS AND INGHAM, ACCOMPANIED BY A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE.Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Innisfail and Cardwell about 11 pm EST. Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and Proserpine including the Whitsundays, are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of low-lying areas extending some way inland. The storm tide will persist for many hours after landfall of the cyclone and secondary peaks may occur around high tide on Thursday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by authorities. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/h are currently affecting the coast and islands, and are forecast to spread into the tropical interior overnight and west to Julia Creek during Thursday. Between Port Douglas and Ayr these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125 km/h developing during this afternoon and early evening, spreading into the tropical interior overnight. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between Cairns and Ingham during the evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will also occur north of the cyclone and affect the Atherton Tablelands. Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the cyclone moves inland. FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and then extend inland overnight.People between Cape Flattery and Sarina, extending inland to Julia Creek and to the area west of Croydon should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Details:
| Time (EST) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) | Longitude (decimal deg.) | Estimated Position Accuracy (km) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 4 pm February 2 | 5 | 17.1S | 148.1E | 30 |
| +6hr | 10 pm February 2 | 5 | 17.8S | 146.3E | 55 |
| +12hr | 4 am February 3 | 3 | 18.6S | 144.5E | 85 |
| +18hr | 10 am February 3 | 2 | 19.3S | 142.8E | 110 |
| +24hr | 4 pm February 3 | 1 | 19.9S | 141.3E | 140 |
| +36hr | 4 am February 4 | 1 | 21.1S | 138.6E | 205 |
| +48hr | 4 pm February 4 | tropical low | 22.1S | 136.4E | 260 |
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Wednesday
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